The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy
Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press
Russia is not capable of maintaining a nuclear arsenal that could effectively deter a first strike by the USA. This is despite the fact that Russia's nuclear capabilities have been at the center of every defence policy since the end of the cold war, as some sort of ultimate guarantee for security.
Knowing this, how are we supposed to believe that Russia has been able to modernize its rusting military forces to match those of western armies, when western militaries have only continued to improve in quality since the end of the cold war? We have no choice but to sceptical, especially since your's is a nation suffering from a textbook case of inferiority complex and cultural cringe, which motivate you to produce huge wall texts of screaming call for attention and respect.
Also, learn to make paragraphs to f.uck's sake.
Russia has the capability to deter a first strike by US, aside from bombers we also have mobile ICBMs and ICBMs in classified locations, our submarines only need to make it under the polar ice cup to launch their missiles, detecting them if they are moving at their tactical speed is not a simple task. In addition we have over horizon radar that can detect pretty much any ICBM heading in our general direction. We have just rolled out a new class of submarines that are more silent than anything we've ever had. Things can be improved and they will be improved but MAD still works. In either case even the slightest possibility that a US surprise attack will not go unpunished is already deterrence enough, US doesn't want to risk getting even partially nuked. And give us a few more years, we'll start building new nuclear warheads again not just carriers.
I'd think that the only way US can track our mobile launchers is through satellite surveillance, we have the technology to jam US satellites, in addition Russia just like any state has its secrets and it would be foolish to assume that US Intelligence, as incompetent an agency as it is managed to figure out the location of every silo and every mobile launcher base, lots of space out there in Mother Russia.
How are you supposed to believe that Russia has been able to modernize its military? The growth of our defense budget? The massive amount of orders Russian MoD placed to manufacturers? Russia has a great technological base, and we've been a nation at war thought the 90s and still are even now, wars are a best way to improve doctrine. The process of improving is not yet complete but its ongoing, and its going fast.
Look at the US military equipment, most of it was designed in concept in the 80s, same with us, most of the stuff we're rolling out right now was designed in concept in the 80s and early 90s, we're not that far behind.
Inferiority complex? Attention? You are completely wrong on both accounts. We are one of the Great Nations of this world, thats a reality and has been a reality for the past 300 years at least. Neither am I screaming, I write in a calm tone but you can take it which ever way you want. It is a simplte fact that we are capable of being a clear threat to the West and it is the West's choice on how they want to proceed, what else is there to say? The only military in the world that can truly oppose us within our power projection capability is US, all the other Western countries (the puppets) present no threat to Russia if Russia gets on full war footing. Aside from a direct military conflict we also have a near-monopoly on energy supplies to Europe as well as a capability to give highly advanced weaponry to the West's enemies and we are doing so, we are supplying Syria, Iran and Venezuela with modern weaponry to update the old Soviet stock from the 70s they've been fighting you so far with. And how are we suffering from the cultural cringe? Where are we dismissing our culture as inferior? We're not, infact we cherish its superiority. Same as with the "inferiority complex", we don't feel the least bit inferior to any westerner, infact a lot of the time we feel superior, Russia as a nation doesn't care what the West thinks of it, we are on our own, we only interact with western leaders then it benefits us, we don't do anything that benefits the west at expense of our own goals, we don't pay tribute and we're perfectly fine with that, we're one of the last truly sovereign nations in the world.
I already asked the question, what AREN'T we doing to challenge US supremacy? We're increasing our military budget, we're giving weapons to America's enemies, we fight American influence in near abroad as can be seen in Georgia and Ukraine. And all of this is America's fault, America was the one who attempted to exploit us in the 90s and now it deals with consequences, and so far this is nothing, our budget keeps growing and the more it grows the more we will challenge America, because we will not allow any nation or nations to infringe upon our sovereignty. We're big boys, we're not doing this for attention, we're doing this cause its the only way to achieve our goals and protect our sovereignty. Russia is not some overemotional 12 year old kid that throws tantrums, neither do we want to be friends with everyone, there is a very clear line of thought behind everything we do, the only thing that concerns us as a nation is our goals and the means we need to achieve them.
You seem a bit detached from reality, exactly the kind of person that writes all those ignorant, self-righteous bullshit about Russia which was what actually moved me to create this thread. Glad you showed up. And what do you have to be skeptical about exactly? Russia is a powerful nation that also happens to be the second largest exporter of very advanced weaponry in the world, our technological base is mostly on par with yours, in a few fields it is superior. We have the money, we just need a little more time to reestablish ourselves as a global power. Or are you one of those that thinks that Russia will simply go away? In that case I would suggest you not hold your breath. I told you what I want, I want US and the west to act responsibly, now I have a question to you, what the hell do you want?
Nice source btw, CFR IS THE neo-con propaganda engine, and Political Science professor isn't exactly the credentials you want to look for, then looking for information on a nation's technical capabilities. I am as qualified to create a nuclear attack model as they are. They don't have the classified data on Russian early warning capabilities, make no mention of the over horizon radars, make no mention of the number of Russian launcher locations that US doesn't know about (which is also classified). Topol-M which is a brand new system, which we have ordered in large quantities and that have already started arriving to the military are not even mentioned in that article. They also claim that Russian bomber force doesn't get enough training, which might have been true in 2006 but not for the past 2 years. Simply put that article is a bunch of rubbish and wishful thinking, which is typical of CFR, they have an agenda you know. Like you know there is Kremlin propaganda right? Well CFR is Washington propaganda and should be viewed with same skepticism.
So what are you B~E? You're a neo-con now? I remember you used to be smarter than this.
Unless I forget you also had a problem with Pan-Slavism for some reason? Let me address that as well, Pan-Slavism has always existed, and even if it is not apparent on political level it will always exist on human level because we are a part of the same ethnicity and there is nothing anyone can do about that. Regular Russian people from all walks of life volunteered to help Serbia fight against Albanian scum not because the government ordered them to, they did it of their own free will. US and the West are trying to break up Pan-Slavism, to make us weaker and easier to swallow, unfortunately in case of Poland they almost succeeded, but there is a lot more of us left and we've never been ones to give up easily.
Here you go, since you're all ADD I made paragraphs.
Medvedev about improving Russia's nuclear deterrent:
RIA Novosti - Russia - Medvedev orders upgrade of Russia's nuclear deterrent by 2020
Jane's Weekly, a real, globally respected military think tank called into question CFE's article you posted. I'll try to find the actual article, which might be hard since Jane's doesn't usually give those out for free.
Russian nuclear deterrent decline called into question - Jane's Intelligence Review
Here is a bit on how we managed to not fall behind in the 90s, it also argues that we can severely limit the nuclear response from US if we were to strike first:
Why Russia Believes It Can Win a Nuclear War
A bit more on our deterrence, infact this one nullifies most of what CFR has said:
Inside Russia's magic mountain
Altogether, the CIA now estimates that these sites can house some 150,000 Soviet civilian and military leaders and are impervious to direct nuclear strikes.
There goes your ability to eliminate our leadership. And there is a lot more interesting stuff in that article like secret nuclear weapons caches that by themselves already provide a deterrent because US simply doesn't know there they are and can't target them.
In addition to everything we have 24 SS-24 missiles that are installed in the launchers hidden on trains that go back and forth around the country 24/7, 365 and are impossible to target, 24 missiles is 240 nuclear warheads that will be heading for US regardless of the state of the rest of our nuclear forces after a surprise attack from US, each warhead with enough yield to cripple almost any city in US beyond repair. They alone are deterrent enough. There are also plans to increase our nuclear rail force with SS-27s in the near future.
Here is an article that was written directly against the CFR article you provided:
“Nuclear Primacy" is a Fallacy
^Hmm Im reading this and apparently by US's own law it can't launch a surprise attack and must inform its own public about such a decision, which of course in our day and age would mean informing the whole world.
Very interesting article which basically diminishes your source, some highlights:
First, to implement SAPTA the National Command Authority (NCA) must have in place a set of legislatively approved special conditions authorizing this action. No such set now exists.
Secondly, the NCA is obliged to inform the nation about this critical decision before a first strike is launched. This must be done if only to provide a time-buffer in which its citizens could implement some measures of protection against the possible negative consequences of the attack.
Third, in order to conduct a first strike it is necessary to implement a number of organizational and technical procedures within the strategic nuclear forces. This is because in peacetime there are numerous procedural and technological blocks in place which are designed to protect nuclear weapons against human error, accidents and sabotage. In order to remove such barriers as a preliminary step towards launching a nuclear first strike, it would require the participation of a significant number of crews on duty working at different operational levels.
The implementation of all the above mentioned circumstances as preparations for a “surprise” first strike would be technically impossible to hide. Therefore, the opposite side would have a certain amount of time to raise the combat readiness of its strategic nuclear forces. If Russia did that, then, as Lieber and Press recognize themselves, nuclear retaliation is inevitable.
The authors have used an analytical type of model, in which a studied process is imitated with the help of formulas. However, it is well known among experts that creating a more or less correct description of a nuclear war through an analytical model is a hopeless task.
Admittedly, the Russian EWS is now weakened. However, if it is able to detect even a small part of the American attack, then it is impossible to rule out the possibility that Russia will react by utilizing the policy of Launch on Warning (LoW), i.e., launching its missiles before the attack is confirmed by nuclear detonations. The number of nuclear warheads in a Russian LoW strike will be far more than in case of a pure LuA (Launch under Attack) variant.
Lieber and Press (the guys that wrote your article) state that, “Our model does not prove that a U.S. disarming attack against Russia would necessarily succeed. Nor does the model assume that the United States is likely to launch a nuclear first strike. Even if U.S. leaders were highly confident of success, a counterforce strike would entail enormous risks and costs.” We must ask: if this is so, then how can they predict that “a surprise attack at peacetime alert levels would have a reasonable chance of success”?
You sir have been pwned.