EDITED: did some wrong calculations
Originally posted by Seks
I don't see "how" many runs you do matters or not. I can clearly see you got like 6-8 drops per day all elite-exceptional. What is boggling my mind is how much this game is based upon luck. I have like 400+% MF, and I do Orb/Nova/TS/Static runs, they're approx 3-5 more secs longer than your standard novasorc.js script runs. I kill everysingle type of Pindle and never die. But I leave the script on all day and come back with a Nagel Ring ;o.
I'm not impatient. I am just confused HOW blizzard's MF system actually works.
see what you went and did real? now i have to clean up your mess.
6-8 drops TODAY mabey. but what about next week. how about last week? its like saying the chicago bulls is and always will be the best basketball team of all time because they were undeafeated when they had michael jordan.
you have to look at the BIG picture. not just the one week that you got good drops.
the odds of ANY drop are so small. to accuratly calculate mf you would need to do millions of runs. cause this week with 2000 runs you might not get shit. but next week you might have 3 wf's drop.
MORE MF IS ALWAYS BETTER! but, their is always a but. it diminishes for rares, sets, and uniques after 100%mf. Up to 100%mf, its a 100% chance for everything: magic, rare, set, unique. after that the chances diminish. at 400% mf you have a 300% chance for a rare, 287% chance for a set, and a 236% chance for a unique to drop. at 1000%mf you have a 460% chance for a rare, 421% chance for a set, and a 295% chance for a unique.
now lets just assume for a second that you have 1000%mf. and the chance for a unique to dorp is 295%. lets calulate out the chance to get somthing good like a wf off of pindle shall we?
pindle has a chance of .108% to drop a hydra bow. so you would statistically have to run about 1000 runs just to have a NORMAL hydra bow drop. so lets say a hydra bow does drop once every 1000 runs. now every time it drops it has to run through if it will be cruel, normal, superior, magical, rare, (their is no set), or unique.
now pindles chance to drop the all important unique version is .001%. that would mean that with no mf you would need to do ON AVERAGE about 100,000 runs. and even with say 1000%mf or the equivalent to uniques mf which is 295% you would only have a .00395% chance for it to drop. which is ABOUT once every 25,000 runs.
now you might say to yourself. "i have about 400-500% mf. that would mean i should have a wf drop once every about 30,000 runs. and one hasnt dropped yet after doing 30,000 runs." but now you have to remember this is an AVERAGE. which to calculate accuratly you would need to do about 100 times the amount of whatever your drop rate is to get an accurate picture of the average. which would mean that the average joe (YOU) would need to do about 3,000,000 runs before you could accuratly see the average.
the reason for this is because granted you might not get one in your first 30,000 runs. but you might get 2 on your second 30,000 runs. or you might have gotten one in your first 100 runs but wont get another for around 60,000 runs.
when it comes right down to it its all about PROBABILITY! remember that when you were in algerbra in highschool? mabey not for some of you younger kids. but you'll learn about it someday soon.
and i hate you ppl for making me type all this shit out instead of just LISTENING TO ME because i know wtf im talking about.
