Psychohistory

[captaindry]

What does everyone think about the concept of psychohistory? (mathematically calculating the future through the patterns of the past)? It's a science fiction concept invented by asimov in the Foundation series.

The weakness I find in it is it doesn't keep track of independent variables and the individual can change a lot (look at Hitler).

So any opinions? Any fans of asimov?

 

[DigitalElite]

This could be in the arcane sanctuary...

Well, as someone great once said, "History repeats itself." Well I believe that, and sure I can think of, or find many cases of that, in one form or another. I think predicting the future by using a mathematical equation though, is something for science fiction.

 

[Thistle]

I guess you could but it wouldnt be very accurate. just like the weather can kinda be predicted but not perfectly.

 

[COTA-GoD]

I say that it could be calculated, but no matter what it will be wrong somewhat. Thats like saying you can tell the future by the way the water flows, you cant tell someone how many kids they will have, by seeing the water is flowing south

 

[amrtin77]

youd have to understand your environment completely. know every variable in the universe. what everything is doing everywhere at all times and be able to instantly analyze it all at once, then predict what is going to happen based on that.


not to mention we dont even know enough about the human brain to get the variables we need for what one person will do i na given situation, let alone the entire universe and every living being in it.

but if you leave ANYTHING out, you may be inaccurate.

its simply not possible.

 

[captaindry]

Originally posted by FishDynasty
This could be in the arcane sanctuary...

What is the arcane sanctuary, I haven't been here nearly as long as everyone else.

 

[amrtin77]

its the forum for intelligent discussion..

 

[drax]

I don't believe in it.

But I do believe that history sometimes repeats itself.

 

[amrtin77]

history doesnt replicate itself obviously... but as long as humans still have the same motives, they will continue to do the same kinds of tihngs to get what they want.