How will the developed world deal with an aging population?

[B~E]

All across the developed world, the population is getting older, and this trend shows no signs of slowing down. By 2030, a full 20% of the US population will be 65 or older, with those 85 or older growing even faster.(Source: US Census) This comes at a time when medical costs are skyrocketing, due to the availablity of many new, expensive treatments. Even now, a significant portion of the developed world's resources are devoted to healthcare, and there will be demand for much more of it in the future. We are already starting to feel the effects, as one of the largest companies in the world is being decimated by retiree healthcare costs. I feel this represents one of the greatest challenges of our time.

How can we best meet this challenge? An honest look at the problem shows that we simply don't have the resources to give everyone all the healthcare that they need, period. Nations with socialized healthcare are already feeling the pressure, and even ten years from now it will be clear to everyone that such programs aren't sustainable without massive cuts. There are big roadblocks to political solutions, considering that the elderly make up a huge voting bloc that will only grow along with their population. Unless there are serious changes in voter demographics, any politican recommending the cuts that need to be made will probably be comitting political suicide, unless they can pull a great bait-and-switch job and spin the hell out of it.

The only solution I can see is to somehow ration healthcare, and there is a huge moral debate about that, along with the practical difficulty of encating such a plan. The alternative is worse though, if left unchecked, healthcare costs will eat up pretty much all of the resources the developed world has, and it would probably lead to a depression worse than what we had in the '30s. Most forumers here are in their twenties, so the way we handle this will probably have a huge impact on our entire lives. How will this play out? What, if anything, can we do about this?

 

[MacMan]

Sources? And what exactly constitutes the "developed" world?

 

[B~E]

Which baseless affirmations do you feel needs a source to make this thread work? The skyrocketing cost of healtcare, the fact that mentioning this issue is politicaly ackward, that with our current healtcare institutions arent sustainable, that an ageing population is even an issue at all?

We could agree that as far as this topic is concerned, the developped world is constituted of countries that score 0.8 or higher on the Human Development Index, displayed in kaki on the map. The map bellow was used as a part of a project on inland capture fisheries, but I assure you we can still use it here.

 

[MacMan]

Why do we not have the resources for universal health care, how are nations with socialized health care feeling "the pressure," and how do you know such programs will be unsupportable in 10 years?

 

[Galatia]

The population might be getting older at the developed world but the situation is exactly the opposite at the developing world. If the developed world can accomodate and open the social security systems to the millions of immigrants from the developing world, the solution is profound.

 

[Гражданин СССР]

Well for now in US at least its basically like this, everyone acknowledges that a new health care plan will need to be created but no one has the balls to push anything with words free or universal in it especially now that the presidential election is not far away. Basically what will happen is that they will wait until the shit really hits home and then put an ineffective system in place that the next generation will have to deal with, thats the american way. In Russia...probably nothing, people die, we got this whole "I don't care." outlook on life as a nation, hopefully we'll make enough babies to replace most of the old people.

 

[B~E]

In Russia...probably nothing, people die, we got this whole "I don't care." outlook on life as a nation, hopefully we'll make enough babies to replace most of the old people.

Well, Russia's got a annual loss of .5% of its population, coupled with roaming gangs of anti immigrant youths stalking the streets. I find that very interesting, because I think that a nation should either take steps to stimulate demographic growth from its own indigenous population (like Japan), or either accept a continuous influx of immigrants to replace the dwindling local population (like the great majority of western countries). And Russia is doing neither of those things.

The population might be getting older at the developed world but the situation is exactly the opposite at the developing world. If the developed world can accomodate and open the social security systems to the millions of immigrants from the developing world, the solution is profound.

Well, if we admit that there really is a demographic problem in the developed world, bringing in foreigners to replace the local population as it disapear doesnt sound like a viable solution to me, because the core of the problem, a society that discourage its population to perpetuate itself, isnt adressed. And while I know that immigration is a very important institution for the health of any country, I dont agree that a self-respecting nation should entirely trust its continuity on foreigners, for the sake of a temporary solution, for some sort of placebo.

Lets say we follow your proposition. Who's going to replace the sons of your immigrant populations in 50 years, once they have to face the same problems that justified their presence in the first place? More immigrants? Is there really an infinite supply of immigrants in the developing world? Not if we considere the fact that China and India will face the same demographic problem that we are right now, since their fertility rate is already at 1.73 for China and 2.8 in India (it was at 3.6 30 years ago, and it continues to drop).
We also have to keep in mind that the standards of living that we enjoy in the West are spreading in Asia and South america, and that one day, India and China will also need immigrants to support their own ageing population.

 

[Saint]

WERE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[MacMan]

This debate is nothing but speculation unless you can answer my previous questions.

 

[Galatia]

Who's going to replace the sons of your immigrant populations in 50 years, once they have to face the same problems that justified their presence in the first place? More immigrants? Is there really an infinite supply of immigrants in the developing world?

We are 6 billion right now and we will be 8 billion in 20 years (irreversible, unless the End of our World comes). The only demographic problem that exists on this planet is overpopulation. There are enough people to sustain all the healthcare systems in the world - but there is not enough clean air to breath and we are running out of oil...

 

[B~E]

We have no responsability to take them in, especially not in the name of a false solution to a structural problem that's causing our demographic decline.

 

[Гражданин СССР]

Well, Russia's got a annual loss of .5% of its population, coupled with roaming gangs of anti immigrant youths stalking the streets. I find that very interesting, because I think that a nation should either take steps to stimulate demographic growth from its own indigenous population (like Japan), or either accept a continuous influx of immigrants to replace the dwindling local population (like the great majority of western countries). And Russia is doing neither of those things.

Actually we are, as of last year I think one of Putin's National Plans was put into effect that financially helps families with 2 or more children, such as for the 2nd child the government gives the family 125 thousand rubles and additional bonuses for 3rd and 4th, and the population decrease has gone down from 06 to 07 so I guess it worked.

Eh, its not the 90s, the gangs of anti-immigrant youths stalking the streets is a lot less common, Russia is a multi-national nation, has been always, thats what makes us strong.

 

[Galatia]

We have no responsability to take them in, especially not in the name of a false solution to a structural problem that's causing our demographic decline.

Demographic decline is a bad joke when you think of the big picture (6 billion). And what exactly will the developed world do, mr. B~E? Build big walls to keep the rest of the world out and pretend that overpopulation doesn't exist inside those walls?

 

[B~E]

Demographic decline is a bad joke when you think of the big picture (6 billion). And what exactly will the developed world do, mr. B~E? Build big walls to keep the rest of the world out and pretend that overpopulation doesn't exist inside those walls?

Quite infantilizing them. Our own interest will be put before them, you know this is how it work.

 

[Lizardbreath]

Here's what is going to happen. NOTHING. Until some people get their own head's out of their asses and realize that this is a problem on a global scale.

 

[Гражданин СССР]

Here's what is going to happen. NOTHING. Until some people get their own head's out of their asses and realize that this is a problem on a global scale.

Very true, politicians are the only ones who can do anything about it but the thing is that unless the majority of the public supports them they won't, the politicians who do touch controversial subjects and build their campaign on it rarely make it to office. Its said but the truth is that to make things better we will first have to make them worse and the public won't accept that.

 

[Tipsy]

All across the developed world, the population is getting older, and this trend shows no signs of slowing down. By 2030, a full 20% of the US population will be 65 or older, with those 85 or older growing even faster.(Source: US Census) This comes at a time when medical costs are skyrocketing, due to the availablity of many new, expensive treatments. Even now, a significant portion of the developed world's resources are devoted to healthcare, and there will be demand for much more of it in the future. We are already starting to feel the effects, as one of the largest companies in the world is being decimated by retiree healthcare costs. I feel this represents one of the greatest challenges of our time.

How can we best meet this challenge? An honest look at the problem shows that we simply don't have the resources to give everyone all the healthcare that they need, period. Nations with socialized healthcare are already feeling the pressure, and even ten years from now it will be clear to everyone that such programs aren't sustainable without massive cuts. There are big roadblocks to political solutions, considering that the elderly make up a huge voting bloc that will only grow along with their population. Unless there are serious changes in voter demographics, any politican recommending the cuts that need to be made will probably be comitting political suicide, unless they can pull a great bait-and-switch job and spin the hell out of it.

It will force the deregulation of medicine so that costs can be drastically lowered. With massive strides forward in technology the costs should be lower. Not to mention licensure and other things that make everything skyrocket in price. It will cause the massive downfall of universal healthcare systems and social security systems which are both fundamentally flawed.

What's the solution? The free market tends to give better quality at lower cost than massive government regulation. That's how the healthcare fiasco should be saved. Unfortunately, no politicians like touching these sacred cows. Combine this with actual fiscal conservatism in government and replace all of the terrible designed social security/medicaid/welfare programs with a comprehensive system. Put Woodrow Wilson back in his grave and keep his 'spreading democracy around the world' based policy in it with him.

Old people complain about not getting enough and young people complain about taxes being too high for the entitlement programs and both complaints are justified.

I can go in more detail if anyone wants, that's just my broad overview.

 

[Lizardbreath]

Umm Healthcare is dealt with privately and you have seen where it has gotten us.

 

[Tipsy]

Umm Healthcare is dealt with privately and you have seen where it has gotten us.

There's a difference between the 'private' heavily government regulated healthcare market there is now and the 'private' free market solution. Here's a free market solution. Right now, we're in limbo between privatized and socialized.

 

[AZN_FLEA]

overpopulation is only occuring because of medical advances. we need our old ppl to die but theyre not going anywhere. they are just sitting on their ass doing nothing like parasites. its rude to say this but its true. their death would be quite beneficial to everyone.

on the other hand, liberation of women and giving them rights made the whole world shit. they dont want to have babies they dont want to do this or that or anything. fucking useless shits.

i guess the only thing the developed world can do is to promote marriage and raise medical costs for the elderly. reducing pension is also a solution. but these are all not every liekly to happen. no one is going to do any of this shit.